Donald Trump o Hillary Clinton: quién ganará según el gurú que acertó en todas las elecciones desde 1984

Allan J. Lichtman, profesor de historia en la Universidad Americana, nunca falló un pronóstico electoral gracias a un sistema construido a partir de 13 indicadores

Las elecciones en las que Barack Obama derrotó a Mitt Romney en 2012 fueron las octavas que Allan J. Lichtman logró predecir acertadamente de forma consecutiva. No tuvo fallas desde que empezó con este osado ejercicio, en 1984.

Este éxito lo convirtió en una especie de gurú de la política estadounidense, lo que explica el éxito de su último libro: Prediciendo al próximo presidente: las claves para llegar a la Casa Blanca en 2016.

¿Quién va ganar las próximas elecciones para Lichtman? A contramano de casi todos los pronósticos que circulan por los medios más politizados en las últimas semanas, él sostiene que el vencedor será Donald J. Trump.

El veredicto se basa en un sistema predictivo construido a partir de 13 claves que pueden ser favorables o contrarias al partido que está en el gobierno. Si seis o más son negativas, el candidato oficial será derrotado. Si no, ganará.

Las 13 claves son el poder del oficialismo en el Congreso tras las elecciones de medio término, el nivel de competencia, si el presidente es el candidato oficialista, la existencia de un tercer partido competitivo, el estado de la economía en el corto plazo, la economía en el largo plazo, si hubo cambios importantes en las políticas públicas en el último período, el grado de malestar social, si ocurrieron escándalos, fracasos en la política exterior o militar, éxitos en la política exterior o militar, el carisma del candidato oficialista, y el carisma del candidato opositor.

Hasta hace unos meses, cinco de las claves estaban firmes en contra del Partido Demócrata: el oficialismo perdió bancas en las elecciones legislativas de medio término, el presidente (Barack Obama) no es candidato, el gobierno no hizo grandes cambios de políticas públicas en el último período, no hubo logros militares ni de política exterior, y la candidata oficial (Hillary Clinton) carece de carisma.

Recientemente, se sumó la sexta clave que faltaba: hay un tercer partido más significativo de lo habitual. Es el Partido Libertario de Gary Johnson, que tendría al menos un 5% de intención de voto.

«El apoyo que está recibiendo Gary Johnson es un gran signo de malestar con el partido que está en la Casa Blanca. Eso deja a los demócratas al borde del cuchillo, con las seis claves fatales en su contra», dijo Lichtman en una entrevista con The Washington Post.

La predicción del historiador es previa al escándalo desatado por el audio que muestra a Trump jactándose de haberse propasado con distintas mujeres, y de las denuncias de abuso que recibió. Sin embargo, como no son cuestiones contempladas por su esquema, no modificaron su conclusión.

De todos modos, Lichtman mantiene aún algunas reservas. «Por el margen más angosto posible, las claves siguen apuntando a una victoria de Trump. Sin embargo, tengo que mencionar dos condicionantes, algo que no había hecho nunca en 30 años de predicciones. Lo primero es que la clave del tercer partido, la sexta, aún podría modificarse. Si Johnson bajara del 5% la predicción cambiaría. Los segundo es Trump. Nunca habíamos visto a alguien considerado un punto de inflexión en la historia tan peligroso como él, lo que podría cambiar los patrones electorales que prevalecieron desde Abraham Lincoln», explicó.

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